“The whole province is not coming out of the drought. That’s part of it. But significant parts will, and that’s good.”
The sky brought mixed blessings to Saskatchewan this winter.
Researchers say strong snowfalls brought a welcome drink for the province’s parched soil this spring after a year of devastating drought.
However, some regions have scarcely any snow and may be in for another tough year unless the weather changes, said Dr. John Pomeroy, a Canada research chair in water resources and climate change and director of the University of Saskatchewan’s Centre for Hydrology.
“People living in the two big cities will think things look OK, and certainly there are areas that do have the deep snowpacks,” he said.
But it all depends on location.
“It’s feast or famine,” Agricultural Producers of Saskatchewan president Ian Boxall said on Friday. Boxall was driving through an area near Rosetown, where precipitation has been particularly low.
“There’s areas where they’re looking at snow in meters in depth,” he said. “And I’m actually driving to my farm right now, and there’s maybe 30 per cent snow cover on some of the fields I’m driving by. The thaw’s just about over.”
Saskatchewan entered winter after a dry spring and summer that depleted dugouts, scorched forests and resulted in farming yields that were well below average.
Statistics Canada estimates producers reaped about 21,143,000 metric tons last year, only about 53 per cent of the 2020 crop.
This year looks better.
Pomeroy, speaking from Canmore, Alberta, said the buildup of snow in the Rockies is one of the highest he has seen. That water is vital for producers who depend on irrigation, and helps push vital nutrients to the wetlands of the Saskatchewan River Delta.
Last April, Agriculture Canada estimated 99 per cent of Saskatchewan’s land was “abnormally dry.”
Pomeroy said parts of the province needed as much as 50 mm of water to make up the deficit. Some have received it. Agriculture Canada’s drought monitor now forecasts drought conditions will improve or even lift in a sizeable part of the province.
“The whole province is not coming out of the drought. That’s part of it,” Pomeroy said. “But significant parts will, and that’s good.”
The Saskatchewan Water Agency’s preliminary runoff report last month said the northern half of the province received “near normal” or “above normal” levels of snow, which Pomeroy said is good news for the fire season.
“It is difficult to predict what a wildfire season may bring because wildfire hazards depend on many factors, including the timing and speed of the snow melt, temperatures, precipitation, and overall forest fuel conditions,” SPSA spokeswoman Jody Lucius said in an emailed statement.
The notable exception is the central-west region. The area around Rosetown is in a period of “exceptional” drought, according to Agriculture Canada, and producers like Boxall, who farms near Tisdale, hope strong rainfall can change that before planting.
“This is Saskatchewan. We could have three more blizzards between now and then,” Boxall said.
Pomeroy said part of it comes down to how quickly temperatures rise. A slow increase with above-zero temperatures during the day and freezing ones at night allows the soil to slowly absorb the water.
Spokesman Sean Osmar said the Water Security Agency projects a cooler, wetter spring, but cautioned its run-off reports capture only a moment in time.
“There are a number of variables that will affect the spring melt and the runoff, not the least of which could be more snow coming in the next days and weeks,” he said.
Pomeroy noted the broader drought has been ongoing for years and is not likely to end soon.
“The question is: is this a long term thing, or short term?”
This story has been updated to clarify Boxall’s comments on the thaw.
zvescera@postmedia.com
twitter.com/zakvescera
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